• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 1.1
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.1/game vs a 35.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.