• 8.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.9
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 152.1/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −1.4 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.1 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 19 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.