• 3.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.1 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.8
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 60.6/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 2.1 there (14 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.