• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 12.3/game vs a 9.4 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.