• 5.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.4 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.4
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 152.3/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −1.3 at this ground — averages 4.1 there (11 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.