• 9.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.6 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 157.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −4.3 at this ground — averages 5.1 there (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.3 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.