8.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.3
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 378.4/game vs a 369 league average
+0.5 at this ground — averages 8.9 there (14 gm)
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Disposals
378.4per game · league avg 369.0
#5 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Disposals
At Adelaide Oval8.9(14)+1.9
Everywhere else7.0(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Disposals
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games8.1(24)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Disposals
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02GCSEthan Read9.410+6%
08-02GCSJed Walter8.212+46%
08-02GCSNed Moyle9.89-9%
08-02GCSDylan Patterson7.26-17%
08-02GCSCharlie Ballard8.67-19%
08-02GCSBen King7.57-7%
08-02GCSJake Rogers9.26-35%
07-24GEEMitchell Edwards9.810+2%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jack's. Computed from this app's own records.