• 6.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.7 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.7
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 101.3/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 6.9 there (48 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.9 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.