• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 10.6/game vs a 9.4 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (19 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.