• 5.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.0
• +1.3 opponent leak — they concede 43/game vs a 35.3 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 5.6 there (11 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.