• 1.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.4/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 1.5 there (31 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.4 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.