• 2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 93.2/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 2.5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.