• 4.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.4 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 201.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 4.4 there (9 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.