• 7.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
• −3.7 at this ground — averages 3.5 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 20 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.