• 36.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 35.3 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 37.9
• +3.5 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• +0.9 at this ground — averages 37.2 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 90.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.