1.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.0 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 195.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
+2.9 at this ground — averages 4.8 there (57 gm)
vs them: averages 4.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Phoenixvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
13.8
6
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Phoenix 13.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
7
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
43.9
99
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Phoenix 43.9/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
51
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
15
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
3
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Phoenix 1.7/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Phoenix13.8
6
GLD1851.3
94
Phoenix 13.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Phoenix0.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Runs
195.2per game · league avg 185.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At McDonald Jones Stadium4.8(57)+0.9
Everywhere else3.9(66)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.3(13)+1.1
Dry games4.2(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Runs
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+13%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLSoni Luke3.45+48%
08-06NQLEthan King0.81+33%
08-01WARLuke Metcalf2.30-100%
08-01WARSam Healey3.46+74%
07-26SGILyhkan King-Togia2.65+95%
07-26SGIJacob Liddle3.43-12%
07-19MANAaron Schoupp1.70-100%
07-19MANJake Simpkin3.05+69%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Phoenix's. Computed from this app's own records.