• 10.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.7 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.2
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 195.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 10.5 there (53 gm)
• vs them: averages 11.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 5: 19 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.