3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.0
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 26.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (39 gm)
vs them: averages 1.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 20 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o3.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Gregvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
187.3
98
Run Metresfavorable
94
1851.3
Greg 187.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.8
97
Tackle Breaksfavorable
88
34.8
Greg 4.8/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
4
Tacklesunfavorable
38
340.0
Greg 1.8/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
99
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Greg 0.9/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Greg 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
98
Line Breaksfavorable
63
5.2
Greg 1.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
58
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Greg 0.5/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
62.0
98
Post Contact Metresfavorable
94
605.3
Greg 62.0/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Greg187.3
98
GLD1851.3
94
Greg 187.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Greg4.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Points
26.6per game · league avg 23.7
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At McDonald Jones Stadium2.9(39)+0.5
Everywhere else2.4(68)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.2(10)-1.5
Dry games2.7(97)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Points
Avg diff
+1.9
Avg diff %
+62%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLScott Drinkwater3.210+209%
08-06NQLBraidon Burns3.10-100%
08-06NQLMurray Taulagi2.80-100%
08-01WARChanel Harris-Tavita3.214+343%
08-01WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad2.80-100%
08-01WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira3.74+8%
08-01WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak3.84+6%
08-01WARTe Maire Martin2.48+233%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Greg's. Computed from this app's own records.