• 1.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 20.8/game vs a 23.7 league average
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.