0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.8/game vs a 4.1 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Tries
4.8per game · league avg 4.1
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At Allianz Stadium0.5(4)+0.2
Everywhere else0.3(67)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(6)+0.2
Dry games0.3(65)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Tries
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-67%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert0.10-100%
08-02WSTAdam Doueihi0.61+63%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou0.000%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini0.10-100%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva0.20-100%
08-02WSTJarome Luai0.30-100%
08-02WSTJahream Bula0.40-100%
08-02WSTTerrell May0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tallis's. Computed from this app's own records.