9.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.5 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.2
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−1.0 at this ground — averages 8.8 there (41 gm)
vs them: averages 9.1 over 12 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o11.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tuivs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
110.5
68
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Tui 110.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
12
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Tui 0.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.3
46
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Tui 15.3/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Tui 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Tui 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Tui 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Tui 0.0/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
44.8
82
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Tui 44.8/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Tui110.5
68
PEN1576.6
25
Tui 110.5/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Tui0.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park8.8(41)-0.6
Everywhere else9.4(68)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)9.0(8)-0.2
Dry games9.2(101)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.1
Avg diff %
-10%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.811-7%
08-07WARAdam Pompey11.50-100%
08-07WARTanner Stowers-Smith11.511-5%
08-07WARKurt Capewell9.810+2%
08-01CBRSebastian Kris11.812+2%
08-01CBRZac Hosking11.613+12%
08-01CBRXavier Savage11.915+26%
07-23PARJosh Addo-Carr12.311-11%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Tui's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5