• 4.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.1 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.5
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 33.1/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 2.6 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.8 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.