• 10.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.9 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 365.8/game vs a 369 league average
• vs them: averages 9.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.