• 10.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.3 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.0
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 375.7/game vs a 369 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 12.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 19 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.