• 1.7 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 49/game vs a 56.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.