• 0.6 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.5/game vs a 12.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 24: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.