• 19.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 19.4 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 20.4
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 377.9/game vs a 369 league average
• −1.8 at this ground — averages 18 there (6 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.