• 24.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 24.0 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 24.3
• −0.6 opponent leak — they concede 360.2/game vs a 369 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 24.4 there (67 gm)
• vs them: averages 22.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.