• 14.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.3 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.2
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 360.2/game vs a 369 league average
• +1.3 at this ground — averages 15.6 there (26 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.