• 16.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 16.7 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.5
• −1.1 opponent leak — they concede 343.2/game vs a 369 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 10.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.