• 25.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 24.4
• +2.1 opponent leak — they concede 399.5/game vs a 369 league average
• −5.8 at this ground — averages 19.2 there (19 gm)
• vs them: averages 17.8 over 12 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 39 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.