• 19.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 19.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 20.3
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 363.9/game vs a 369 league average
• −3.1 at this ground — averages 16.6 there (41 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.