• 2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.1
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 104/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.6 at this ground — averages 2.9 there (28 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.