• 4.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.2 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.3
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 104/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 4.5 there (39 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.