• 22.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 22.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 23.0
• +1.0 opponent leak — they concede 386.2/game vs a 369 league average
• −4.0 at this ground — averages 18.4 there (47 gm)
• vs them: averages 15.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.