• 11.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 12.2 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.8
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 386.2/game vs a 369 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 11.1 there (41 gm)
• vs them: averages 13.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.