• 24.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 24.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 24.6
• +1.1 opponent leak — they concede 386.2/game vs a 369 league average
• −3.8 at this ground — averages 20.5 there (58 gm)
• vs them: averages 20.8 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.