• 1.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 104/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 2 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.