• 6.8 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 160.7/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +2.5 at this ground — averages 9.3 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.