• 25.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.0 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.4
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 365.8/game vs a 369 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −4.4 wet forecast — averages 20.8 in the wet (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 20.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.