from 15.4 baseline, +0.2 opponent leak

• 15.4 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 373.9/game vs a 368.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 14.5 over 2 games — 102% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 23: 26 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.