from 0.8 baseline, −0.1 opponent leak

• 0.8 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 16.9/game vs a 18.9 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 2 games — 109% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.