• 10.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.0 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 10.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average
• vs them: averages 11.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.