• 4.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.9 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.8
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 53.9/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 5.2 there (51 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.4 over 12 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.