• 16.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 16.3 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 367.1/game vs a 369 league average
• −1.4 at this ground — averages 14.8 there (40 gm)
• vs them: averages 15.2 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.