• 14.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.8 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 363.9/game vs a 369 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +0.2 wet forecast — averages 14.9 in the wet (14 gm)
• vs them: averages 12.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.