• 24.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 23.6 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 369.9/game vs a 369 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 22.7 there (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 23.9 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 43 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.