• 13.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.0 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.6
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 377.9/game vs a 369 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 14.6 there (16 gm)
• vs them: averages 15.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 28 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.