• 13.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 13.6 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.6
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 378.4/game vs a 369 league average
• −1.0 at this ground — averages 12.6 there (15 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 26 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.