• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 8.1/game vs a 9.7 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 13: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.